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Market Update: A Look Back at Q2 2024

July 15, 2024

As we enter the second half of 2023, it is the perfect time to review the last quarter. Overall, bulls continued to run during the second quarter of 2024 as several major stock indexes broke out of recent trading ranges to the upside.


Stock Market Performance


In the second quarter, the S&P 500 increased by approximately 3.90%, the Nasdaq Composite rose by close to 8.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by nearly 1.7%. These movements highlight the varying performance across major indices, influenced by different sectors and market dynamics.


Interest Rates and Inflation


At the beginning of the year, there was widespread speculation about multiple rate cuts. However, due to sticky inflation, which has shown early signs of potentially softening, the narrative has shifted. Current expectations are for one rate cut in 2024, with uncertainty around the timing due to the presidential election.


Inflation Metrics


The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate declined in Q2, with May showing a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.3%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, dropped to a three-year low of 3.4%. This decrease in core inflation supports the case for potential rate cuts, illustrating the significant impact of essential goods on inflationary pressures.


Labor Market Dynamics


Labor markets remained mostly steady to higher throughout Q2, with payroll gains of 206,000 in June, 272,000 in May, and 175,000 in April. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, the highest since November 2021. This increase suggests that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes may be starting to dampen economic activity.


Federal Reserve Policy


The second quarter included two Federal Reserve policy meetings, both of which resulted in unchanged interest rates, maintaining a target overnight lending rate of 5 - 5.25%. Market expectations indicate a high probability of no rate cut in July and a potential 25-basis-point cut in September.


Bond Market Trends


Slowing inflation data and expectations of Fed rate cuts led to a decline in Treasury yields by over 30 basis points from their April peak, ending Q2 near 4.37%. This decline resulted in price appreciation for bonds, with the Morningstar Core Bond Index gaining 0.17% and high-yield bonds adding 1.07% for the quarter.


Technology and AI: Sector Performance


Technology and AI sectors continued to outperform, with the technology sector rising by 11.40% in Q2. AI-fueled gains were a dominant narrative, driving substantial investment inflows.


Other Sectors


  • Basic Materials: -5.88%
  • Communication Services: +9.16%
  • Consumer Cyclical: -1.20%
  • Utilities: +4.48%
  • Industrials: -3.41%


The divergence in sector performance underscores the importance of strategic diversification in investment portfolios.


Bonds and Fixed Income: Investment Strategies


Despite recent challenges, bonds may present a generational buying opportunity, especially if inflation continues to decelerate. The extended drawdown in the bond market suggests potential value for smart money looking to capitalize on fixed-income assets.


Dividend Stocks: Investment Strategies


Dividend-paying stocks, lagging behind trendier sectors, may regain favor if interest rates decline. Established companies like Coca-Cola, Disney, and 3M remain robust investment options for those seeking stability.


Final Thoughts


As we transition from Q2 to Q3, attention will remain on inflation data and Federal Reserve communications. Diversification and a long-term focus are crucial for navigating market volatility and achieving investment success. For personalized advice and to discuss your investment strategy, contact Stanton Advisory Group today.

November 4, 2024
The end of the year is fast approaching, which means it's time to get your financial house in order before 2025. This can help ease tax season stress and ensure you're set up for a smooth start to the new year. To get ahead, here are eight key financial planning tips to consider: 1. Organize Your Documents for Taxes Tax season will be here before you know it, so now is the perfect time to start gathering important documents, like bills, bank statements, and receipts for any deductible expenses. Staying organized makes filing much easier and helps you avoid missing out on potential deductions. 2. Review Your Filing Status Did your marital status change this year? Getting married, divorced, or welcoming a new child into your family can impact your filing status and, consequently, your tax bill. Checking your status now can help avoid surprises and possibly lead to a bigger refund. 3. Max Out Your Retirement Contributions Have you contributed the maximum amount to your retirement accounts? For 401(k) and 403(b) plans, the limit for 2024 is $23,000. If you're 50 or older, you can take advantage of catch-up contributions, adding an extra $7,500. Looking ahead, those aged 60-63 can contribute even more in 2025 with an additional $10,000 catch-up limit. 4. Check Your Estate Plan Life changes can also affect your estate plan. Now is a good time to review your will, trusts, and beneficiary designations to ensure they align with your current situation and goals. Updates to estate tax laws could also mean adjustments are needed. 5. Review Insurance Coverages Open enrollment is coming up for many employer benefit plans, so it’s a great time to review your health, life, long-term care, and disability insurance. Make sure your policies provide adequate coverage, especially if you’ve had major life changes like marriage, a new baby, or purchasing a home. 6. Think About Your Investments The end of the year is a good time to review your investment portfolio and ensure it still aligns with your financial goals. If you have any underperforming stocks, consider selling them to offset capital gains elsewhere. And don't forget—if you've sold cryptocurrency, the profits are taxable too! 7. Plan for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) If you turned 73 this year, you’ll need to take your first RMD by April 1, 2025, and your second by December 31, 2025. RMDs apply to certain retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs, so make sure you’re prepared to take the correct amount to avoid penalties. 8. Evaluate Your Charitable Contributions If you plan to make charitable donations, now is the time to do it. Donations made to qualified charities can be tax-deductible, and if you itemize, this can offer significant tax savings. For those over 70½, you can also use a qualified charitable distribution (QCD) to donate up to $100,000 tax-free. Financial health requires regular monitoring, and these year-end steps can help keep you on track for a prosperous 2025. Schedule a consultation today to make sure your financial plan is aligned with your goals.
October 11, 2024
Elections have always been a time of uncertainty for markets, with investors wondering how political changes might affect their portfolios. However, history tells us that markets are resilient, and long-term strategies often withstand the ups and downs of election cycles. Here’s how elections impact markets and why sticking to your plan can lead to strong returns. 1. Market Uncertainty vs. Political Affiliation One of the key drivers of market fluctuations during elections is uncertainty, not the political party in power. Markets generally dislike uncertainty, and elections introduce a sense of unpredictability as policies and leadership could shift. However, it’s important to note that since World War II, no political party has consistently experienced superior market returns. This suggests that while short-term volatility may occur, the markets have trended upwards over the long term, regardless of who holds office. For investors, this is a critical reminder: rather than reacting to the headlines, focus on the policies that will likely impact the market, such as tax reforms or regulatory changes, and not the personalities involved. 2. Historical Election Year Returns Historically, election years have been positive for investors who stayed the course. In 20 of the last 23 election years, a balanced 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) finished in positive territory. On average, election years delivered an 8.5% return. The three exceptions were due to broader macroeconomic factors, not political outcomes. This data demonstrates that, despite the uncertainties elections may bring, staying invested during these times has typically paid off. Pulling out of the market or drastically changing your investment strategy based on election results can lead to missed opportunities for growth. 3. The Impact of Tax Policies Tax policy changes are often a focal point during election cycles, and they can indeed influence markets. For example, past tax hikes have had mixed effects on market performance. Between 1931-1932, tax increases contributed to a market decline of -27.9%. However, from 1934-1936, the market saw a 24.9% increase despite higher taxes. More recent periods of tax changes, such as the 2012-2013 increases in individual and capital gains taxes, coincided with a 23.9% market gain. This historical perspective underscores that while tax policy changes can have short-term effects, they do not typically dictate long-term market trends. Investors should be prepared for potential policy changes, such as the expiration of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act in 2025, but not allow these potential shifts to derail a well-thought-out investment plan. 4. Sticking to the Plan The most important takeaway for investors is that staying the course during election years and beyond has historically been a winning strategy. Research shows that forward 4-year returns following elections have been robust, regardless of the outcome. Reacting emotionally or making hasty changes in response to political shifts can undermine long-term goals. In times of uncertainty, it’s easy to feel compelled to make adjustments. However, having a solid investment plan, tailored to your goals and risk tolerance, means you shouldn’t need to react to short-term events, including elections. Webinar Invitation To dive deeper into how elections and other global events influence markets, join Stanton Advisory Group for an exclusive webinar on October 14th at 3 p.m. CST. In partnership with financial experts, we’ll explore more on this topic and provide actionable insights for navigating election year volatility. Email us to receive the registration link. Call to Action If you’re concerned about how elections might affect your portfolio or are unsure whether your current strategy is optimized for the long term, now is the time to take action. Schedule a consultation with Stanton Advisory Group today to review your plan and ensure you’re on track for financial success, regardless of the political landscape. Disclosure: Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. This material does not constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice. Consult a licensed professional for tailored advice.
September 6, 2024
Planning for retirement can feel like navigating a maze, especially when it comes to taxes and ensuring you leave behind a strong financial legacy for your loved ones. One strategy that more and more people are exploring is a Roth conversion. But what exactly is a Roth conversion, and how can it benefit you? Let’s break it down in this beginner-friendly guide. What Is a Roth Conversion? A Roth conversion involves moving money from a traditional retirement account, like a 401(k) or a traditional IRA, into a Roth IRA. Why would you do this? The key difference between these accounts is how they are taxed. With a traditional IRA or 401(k), you get a tax break upfront when you contribute, but you’ll pay taxes on the money you withdraw in retirement. With a Roth IRA, you pay taxes on the money before you contribute, but then you get to withdraw it tax-free in retirement. Why Consider a Roth Conversion? Now that you know what a Roth conversion is, let’s explore why it might be a smart move for you: Tax-Free Withdrawals in Retirement: By converting to a Roth IRA, you can enjoy tax-free withdrawals in retirement. This can be a huge benefit if you expect to be in a higher tax bracket when you retire or if you’re worried about rising tax rates in the future. No Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs): Traditional IRAs require you to start taking distributions at age 73, whether you need the money or not. Roth IRAs, on the other hand, have no required minimum distributions during your lifetime, giving you more control over your money. Leaving More to Heirs: If one of your financial goals is to leave money to your heirs, a Roth conversion can help. Since Roth IRAs don’t have RMDs, your account can continue to grow tax-free, potentially leaving more for your beneficiaries. Plus, your heirs can withdraw the money tax-free, which can be a significant advantage. Hedge Against Future Tax Increases: Converting to a Roth IRA now, while tax rates are historically low, could save you money if tax rates increase in the future. It’s a way to lock in your current tax rate and avoid potentially higher taxes later on. When Does a Roth Conversion Make Sense? A Roth conversion isn’t for everyone, and it’s important to consider whether it makes sense for your specific situation. Here are a few scenarios where it might be particularly beneficial: You Expect Higher Taxes in the Future: If you think tax rates will go up or you’ll be in a higher tax bracket in retirement, paying taxes now with a Roth conversion could save you money in the long run. You Have a Long Time Until Retirement: The longer your money has to grow in a Roth IRA, the more you can benefit from tax-free growth. You Want to Leave a Tax-Free Legacy: If you’re focused on maximizing what you leave to your heirs, a Roth conversion can be a powerful tool. What Are the Drawbacks? While Roth conversions offer many benefits, there are a few potential downsides to consider: Immediate Tax Bill: When you convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, you’ll owe taxes on the amount you convert. This can be a significant cost, especially if you’re converting a large amount. Higher Income Taxes: The amount you convert is added to your taxable income for the year, which could push you into a higher tax bracket. Is a Roth Conversion Right for You? Deciding whether to do a Roth conversion depends on your individual circumstances, including your current tax bracket, future income expectations, and retirement goals. It’s a complex decision, but one that could have significant benefits for your financial future. Ready to Explore Your Options? If you’re curious about whether a Roth conversion could be right for you, we’re here to help. At Stanton Advisory Group, we specialize in helping our clients navigate the complexities of retirement planning and tax strategies. Schedule a Consultation with us today to explore how a Roth conversion could fit into your financial plan and secure a brighter, tax-efficient future.
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