Blog Layout

Market Update: A Look Back at Q1 2024

April 18, 2024
The first quarter of 2024 brought notable movements in the stock market, with various sectors experiencing gains and challenges. As we wrap up this quarter, let's delve into the key developments that have shaped the market landscape.

S&P 500: Best Q1 Since 2019

The S&P 500 kicked off the year with its strongest first quarter performance since 2019, marking a five-month winning streak. The index showcased early strength in the AI sector, notably with contributions from companies like NVIDIA. Towards the end of the quarter, there was a notable expansion into other sectors, particularly energy and communication, which garnered investor interest.

Inflation Dynamics: Soft Landing or No Landing?

A significant question lingering in investors' minds is whether the Federal Reserve can navigate its inflation-fighting campaign without triggering a recession. Market bulls seemed optimistic about a "soft landing," characterized by moderated inflation without a recession, while the possibility of "no landing" also remained under consideration.

Mixed Inflation Trends

While the cost of goods and services continued to rise, the pace of inflation showed signs of moderation compared to previous peaks. However, metrics fluctuated throughout the quarter, with consumer inflation exhibiting variations from month to month. Despite the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2%, the market has been signaling its desire for rate cuts.

Labor Market Resilience

The labor market demonstrated resilience throughout the first quarter, with solid payroll gains exceeding analyst expectations. However, despite these positive indicators of economic strength, the initial figures didn't align entirely with the market's preference for rate cuts. Nevertheless, downward revisions in subsequent months provided some support for such actions.

Unemployment Trends

Unemployment rates presented a mixed picture, with a notable uptick observed in the last monthly data release of the quarter, reaching a one-year high of 3.90%. These fluctuations underscore the complexities of interpreting labor market dynamics amid broader economic trends.

Federal Reserve Outlook

Against the backdrop of economic data, the Federal Reserve held two meetings during the quarter, maintaining interest rates at a 23-year high. While the Fed hinted at potential rate cuts in its Summary of Economic Projections, the decision to hold rates steady in March reflects a cautious approach pending further inflation readings.

Implications and Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remained buoyant throughout the first quarter, with major U.S. stock indexes continuing their upward trajectory. However, concerns persist regarding the sustainability of this rally, particularly amidst discussions surrounding potential rate cuts and broader economic uncertainties.

Crypto Market Dynamics

The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin registering a notable 65% increase in Q1. Factors such as spot ETF buying and anticipation surrounding Bitcoin's halving event contributed to this surge. However, the onset of the second quarter saw a shift in sentiment, with increased volatility and selling pressure observed across various cryptocurrencies.

Long-Term Perspective

Amidst evolving market dynamics, it's crucial to maintain a long-term perspective on investment strategies. While short-term fluctuations can be unsettling, adherence to disciplined investment principles is essential for navigating market uncertainties.

Final Thoughts

As we reflect on the first quarter of 2024, it's evident that the market landscape remains dynamic and multifaceted. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting, staying informed about market trends and their implications is paramount. If you have any questions or concerns about your investment portfolio or the market outlook, don't hesitate to reach out to Stanton Advisory Group for personalized guidance and support.
November 4, 2024
The end of the year is fast approaching, which means it's time to get your financial house in order before 2025. This can help ease tax season stress and ensure you're set up for a smooth start to the new year. To get ahead, here are eight key financial planning tips to consider: 1. Organize Your Documents for Taxes Tax season will be here before you know it, so now is the perfect time to start gathering important documents, like bills, bank statements, and receipts for any deductible expenses. Staying organized makes filing much easier and helps you avoid missing out on potential deductions. 2. Review Your Filing Status Did your marital status change this year? Getting married, divorced, or welcoming a new child into your family can impact your filing status and, consequently, your tax bill. Checking your status now can help avoid surprises and possibly lead to a bigger refund. 3. Max Out Your Retirement Contributions Have you contributed the maximum amount to your retirement accounts? For 401(k) and 403(b) plans, the limit for 2024 is $23,000. If you're 50 or older, you can take advantage of catch-up contributions, adding an extra $7,500. Looking ahead, those aged 60-63 can contribute even more in 2025 with an additional $10,000 catch-up limit. 4. Check Your Estate Plan Life changes can also affect your estate plan. Now is a good time to review your will, trusts, and beneficiary designations to ensure they align with your current situation and goals. Updates to estate tax laws could also mean adjustments are needed. 5. Review Insurance Coverages Open enrollment is coming up for many employer benefit plans, so it’s a great time to review your health, life, long-term care, and disability insurance. Make sure your policies provide adequate coverage, especially if you’ve had major life changes like marriage, a new baby, or purchasing a home. 6. Think About Your Investments The end of the year is a good time to review your investment portfolio and ensure it still aligns with your financial goals. If you have any underperforming stocks, consider selling them to offset capital gains elsewhere. And don't forget—if you've sold cryptocurrency, the profits are taxable too! 7. Plan for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) If you turned 73 this year, you’ll need to take your first RMD by April 1, 2025, and your second by December 31, 2025. RMDs apply to certain retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs, so make sure you’re prepared to take the correct amount to avoid penalties. 8. Evaluate Your Charitable Contributions If you plan to make charitable donations, now is the time to do it. Donations made to qualified charities can be tax-deductible, and if you itemize, this can offer significant tax savings. For those over 70½, you can also use a qualified charitable distribution (QCD) to donate up to $100,000 tax-free. Financial health requires regular monitoring, and these year-end steps can help keep you on track for a prosperous 2025. Schedule a consultation today to make sure your financial plan is aligned with your goals.
October 11, 2024
Elections have always been a time of uncertainty for markets, with investors wondering how political changes might affect their portfolios. However, history tells us that markets are resilient, and long-term strategies often withstand the ups and downs of election cycles. Here’s how elections impact markets and why sticking to your plan can lead to strong returns. 1. Market Uncertainty vs. Political Affiliation One of the key drivers of market fluctuations during elections is uncertainty, not the political party in power. Markets generally dislike uncertainty, and elections introduce a sense of unpredictability as policies and leadership could shift. However, it’s important to note that since World War II, no political party has consistently experienced superior market returns. This suggests that while short-term volatility may occur, the markets have trended upwards over the long term, regardless of who holds office. For investors, this is a critical reminder: rather than reacting to the headlines, focus on the policies that will likely impact the market, such as tax reforms or regulatory changes, and not the personalities involved. 2. Historical Election Year Returns Historically, election years have been positive for investors who stayed the course. In 20 of the last 23 election years, a balanced 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) finished in positive territory. On average, election years delivered an 8.5% return. The three exceptions were due to broader macroeconomic factors, not political outcomes. This data demonstrates that, despite the uncertainties elections may bring, staying invested during these times has typically paid off. Pulling out of the market or drastically changing your investment strategy based on election results can lead to missed opportunities for growth. 3. The Impact of Tax Policies Tax policy changes are often a focal point during election cycles, and they can indeed influence markets. For example, past tax hikes have had mixed effects on market performance. Between 1931-1932, tax increases contributed to a market decline of -27.9%. However, from 1934-1936, the market saw a 24.9% increase despite higher taxes. More recent periods of tax changes, such as the 2012-2013 increases in individual and capital gains taxes, coincided with a 23.9% market gain. This historical perspective underscores that while tax policy changes can have short-term effects, they do not typically dictate long-term market trends. Investors should be prepared for potential policy changes, such as the expiration of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act in 2025, but not allow these potential shifts to derail a well-thought-out investment plan. 4. Sticking to the Plan The most important takeaway for investors is that staying the course during election years and beyond has historically been a winning strategy. Research shows that forward 4-year returns following elections have been robust, regardless of the outcome. Reacting emotionally or making hasty changes in response to political shifts can undermine long-term goals. In times of uncertainty, it’s easy to feel compelled to make adjustments. However, having a solid investment plan, tailored to your goals and risk tolerance, means you shouldn’t need to react to short-term events, including elections. Webinar Invitation To dive deeper into how elections and other global events influence markets, join Stanton Advisory Group for an exclusive webinar on October 14th at 3 p.m. CST. In partnership with financial experts, we’ll explore more on this topic and provide actionable insights for navigating election year volatility. Email us to receive the registration link. Call to Action If you’re concerned about how elections might affect your portfolio or are unsure whether your current strategy is optimized for the long term, now is the time to take action. Schedule a consultation with Stanton Advisory Group today to review your plan and ensure you’re on track for financial success, regardless of the political landscape. Disclosure: Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. This material does not constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice. Consult a licensed professional for tailored advice.
September 6, 2024
Planning for retirement can feel like navigating a maze, especially when it comes to taxes and ensuring you leave behind a strong financial legacy for your loved ones. One strategy that more and more people are exploring is a Roth conversion. But what exactly is a Roth conversion, and how can it benefit you? Let’s break it down in this beginner-friendly guide. What Is a Roth Conversion? A Roth conversion involves moving money from a traditional retirement account, like a 401(k) or a traditional IRA, into a Roth IRA. Why would you do this? The key difference between these accounts is how they are taxed. With a traditional IRA or 401(k), you get a tax break upfront when you contribute, but you’ll pay taxes on the money you withdraw in retirement. With a Roth IRA, you pay taxes on the money before you contribute, but then you get to withdraw it tax-free in retirement. Why Consider a Roth Conversion? Now that you know what a Roth conversion is, let’s explore why it might be a smart move for you: Tax-Free Withdrawals in Retirement: By converting to a Roth IRA, you can enjoy tax-free withdrawals in retirement. This can be a huge benefit if you expect to be in a higher tax bracket when you retire or if you’re worried about rising tax rates in the future. No Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs): Traditional IRAs require you to start taking distributions at age 73, whether you need the money or not. Roth IRAs, on the other hand, have no required minimum distributions during your lifetime, giving you more control over your money. Leaving More to Heirs: If one of your financial goals is to leave money to your heirs, a Roth conversion can help. Since Roth IRAs don’t have RMDs, your account can continue to grow tax-free, potentially leaving more for your beneficiaries. Plus, your heirs can withdraw the money tax-free, which can be a significant advantage. Hedge Against Future Tax Increases: Converting to a Roth IRA now, while tax rates are historically low, could save you money if tax rates increase in the future. It’s a way to lock in your current tax rate and avoid potentially higher taxes later on. When Does a Roth Conversion Make Sense? A Roth conversion isn’t for everyone, and it’s important to consider whether it makes sense for your specific situation. Here are a few scenarios where it might be particularly beneficial: You Expect Higher Taxes in the Future: If you think tax rates will go up or you’ll be in a higher tax bracket in retirement, paying taxes now with a Roth conversion could save you money in the long run. You Have a Long Time Until Retirement: The longer your money has to grow in a Roth IRA, the more you can benefit from tax-free growth. You Want to Leave a Tax-Free Legacy: If you’re focused on maximizing what you leave to your heirs, a Roth conversion can be a powerful tool. What Are the Drawbacks? While Roth conversions offer many benefits, there are a few potential downsides to consider: Immediate Tax Bill: When you convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, you’ll owe taxes on the amount you convert. This can be a significant cost, especially if you’re converting a large amount. Higher Income Taxes: The amount you convert is added to your taxable income for the year, which could push you into a higher tax bracket. Is a Roth Conversion Right for You? Deciding whether to do a Roth conversion depends on your individual circumstances, including your current tax bracket, future income expectations, and retirement goals. It’s a complex decision, but one that could have significant benefits for your financial future. Ready to Explore Your Options? If you’re curious about whether a Roth conversion could be right for you, we’re here to help. At Stanton Advisory Group, we specialize in helping our clients navigate the complexities of retirement planning and tax strategies. Schedule a Consultation with us today to explore how a Roth conversion could fit into your financial plan and secure a brighter, tax-efficient future.
Share by: